The Beautiful Thing About Bubbles…
Is Bubbles Are Beautiful Things… For a While…

Posted by mturner on November 4, 2009 under Bull/Bear, Investing, Stock Market Update | 3 Comments to Read

by Mike Turner

Despite the Fed’s announcement today that the ‘mother-of-all-carry-trades’ can continue indefinitely (see more on this, below), I am wary this market could move lower for at least another week or maybe two.

Below is the current CycleProphet chart on the S&P 500. The model is forecasting a correction (see drop between Circle A and Circle B). The forecast bottom of the current correction has moved up a week from last week’s forecast. This may well mean that the depth of this correction will not be as severe. Based on this updated chart, I am not quite as bearish today as I was a week ago. The S&P 500 could bottom anywhere between where it closed today and roughly 980 (see Circle C). Since the bottom has moved closer to us in the time-line, I would not be surprised if the bottom occurs sooner than 11/16.

Looking further into the future, the cycle data are now forecasting that once the market bottoms in this current correction, the next major market top could be in early February. December and January look to be very volatile.



    CycleProphet Update:
    For those of you in the CycleProphet beta group… I will be sending out an update next week. I am meeting with the design group this weekend and will have more to tell you after that meeting.

    If you are not in this “IPO” (Initial Product Offering) beta group and want to be a part of the design and testing effort, we have not quite reached our 500 limit yet. We will be attending the National AAII meeting next week where I will be presenting the new CycleProphet product concept. There is no doubt that there will be more people wanting to participate in this project than we will have slots available. If you want to be involved, click on the above chart, which will take you to a landing page that describes the product and gives you an opportunity to get in the beta group.

    There is no obligation to participate in the group and no obligation to subscribe to the final product. However, only the beta group will be given a 50% discount on an annual subscription when CycleProphet is launched later this year. You do not want to miss out on this innovative financial forecasting tool. Also, as a beta group member, you get to provide our development team with suggestions on the product’s final look-and-feel, what charts should be included, and how the website should be designed. Click Here or click on the chart above to get more details and how to get into the beta group member.



The Turner CrossOver Oscillator (below) data support Read more of this article »

Has the Correction Started?

Posted by mturner on October 21, 2009 under Bull/Bear, Investing, Stock Market Update | Read the First Comment

October 21, 2009 — The big question this evening (Wednesday) is whether or not the 170 point drop in the DJIA from the highs today, is the much forecasted (at least by me and others) start of a correction? Take a look at the Cycle Forecast Model, below:

The forecast model peaked on October 14, just one week ago. It called the market top one week in advance of the actual event (Circle A)… IF the market continues to move lower from this point. The model is forecasting that the market will continue generally lower until November 5 (Circle B). I hate to keep reminding you of this, but new subscribers are joining this distribution list every day… The above chart is a forecast ‘model’… not a forecast fact.

Read more of this article »